Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Cape Town

I can describe Cape Town in two words: Los Angeles.

The beach, the mountains, the coast, the smell, the sun, the fauna: palm trees, jacarandas, agapanthus, bougainvillaeas, all reminded me of LA.

Also the urban sprawl, the traffic, the shopping malls, and the crushing poverty confined to a few small areas.

Of course, Los Angeles doesn't get gale force winds, or have one of the highest murder rates in the world.  But then again, Los Angeles doesn't rank on the Mercer list of 'most livable cities in the world.' (Cape Town is 86.)

Which, I guess, is kind of the point: Cape Town is a study in contrasts.  But I wasn't there to judge its economy, its social equality, or its political leadership.  I was just there on holiday, and it was spectacular.

First, I need to dispel two myths: 1) Cape Town is not at Cape Point, and Cape Point is not the southernmost point of Africa.  And 2) Water does not drain counter-clockwise south of the equator.

Table Mountain looms over the Cape; on the north side is the sea, with a tiny sliver of apartments in between.  (I thought the sea was south until I saw the sun setting in the east.)  South of Cape Town is the Cape peninsula -- which on a map resembles Baja California.  All along are dotted small beaches, each with their own characteristics: Some are protected from the wind; some are sandy, others rocky; some are cold water (from the Atlantic current) while others have warm water (from the Indian ocean).  The warm water beaches have sharks, with several attacks each year.

On the other side of the mountain, Cape Town sprawls out over 948 sq mi (about half the size of Los Angeles), with a population of 3.5 million.  A few "shanty towns" speak to the poverty of the area--large areas of corrugated metal huts, connected to the electric grid. It is also where most of the crime is; the tourist areas are fairly safe.

The top of the mountain (reached by cable car) offers spectacular views of the ocean and the city.  I'm sorry I didn't get to see the sunset from the mountain, but the fickle weather turned, clouds formed and poured into the gorges like waterfalls, the wind started to blow, and I got down as quickly as I could.  The wind howled all through the night, but the next morning was clear and calm again.

Along "false bay" is Boulders beach, notable for a flock of African penguins (formerly known as "jackass" penguins because of their mating call).  However, November is moulting season, and since they aren't waterproof, they stay out of the water.  (Which means they don't eat, which means they mostly just sit around for three weeks doing nothing.)  I got quite a few photos of them doing nothing.  I also got some photos of a right whale doing nothing, while her calf swam around the bay.

It was hard to remember it was November, because it was spring in the southern hemisphere.  The jacaranda (with their purple leaves) were in full show, the star jasmine perfumed the air, and the proteas (South Africa's national flower) were blooming on the hills.  Days were long, with sunset occurring around 8pm.  The weather varied incredibility, with highs in the low 60s some days, and high 80s the others.  It was, in short, spectacular.

There was much I didn't do.  I didn't visit Kirstenbosch, Groot Constantia, Franschhoek, or Robben Island.  I didn't go to any game reserves.  I didn't go sailing, parasailing, or shark diving.  I didn't visit the aquarium, or see Cape Point.  I did eat my way through Cape Town, enjoying bilkes, rusks, cappuccino muffins, and milktarts. I went to a wine farm and sampled six bottles, and even bought a Riesling.  Friday night I went to an Orthodox synagogue, and Saturday I went to an optometrist and bought new glasses.  (Not related.)

As I told everyone I met: This was my first visit to South Africa, but definitely not my last.  It was as beautiful as I expected it to be, and the people were equally lovely.  It is not a paradise, and it still has a long way to go in terms of social equality, which is being hindered by massive political corruption.  I don't know that I'd want to live there, but I understand why people love it.

[Photos to follow soon.]

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Where have I been?

That's a very good question.  I'm not sure I have a good answer.  It *feels* like I've been really busy, though.

Over the past six weeks, I've had some friends move from Los Angeles to London, although it took me three weeks to actually meet up with them.  I attended High Holy Days at my new synagogue.  I spent a week in Wolverhampton at a training course -- the class was interesting, but Wolverhampton wasn't.  I had tea at Cliveden House, gone to a couple of plays, a couple of movies. I didn't do anything for Halloween.  I think I went to the gym once.

Tomorrow I'm flying to South Africa for 10 days, which is cool -- seriously, it's about 21C (70F), much lower than the November average of 25C (77F), but still warmer than England!  When I get back, I have to go back to Wolverhampton for another week of training -- this time I'm driving, partly so I'm not stuck at the hotel every evening, but mostly because the plane from South Africa lands at 6:30am, and training starts at 9am the same day!  In December I'm hoping to go back to the States to see my family, and may be attending Limmud, a week-long Jewish educational conference that sounds very interesting.  (However, I'm not likely to get time off from work to do both.)

At the end of December, two more friends are moving from New York to London, although they have a new baby so I'm not sure how much I'll get to see of them.  And then it's New Years and I have absolutely no plans after that. :-)

Friday, November 4, 2011

Eurozone crisis

This is a brilliant chart, highlighting the Eurozone crisis:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13366011

If you think of GDP as your salary, and the annual deficit as the amount you borrow each year to make ends meet, you can see that most countries have been living beyond their means for many years, with only Finland actively saving money.  (Ireland was saving, but the 'celtic tiger' collapsed so spectacularly, they are now running a 30% deficit, which is unheard of in a first world country.)

When California faced its budget crisis in 2008, it was forced to increase taxes and curb its spending in order to bring its budget under control. Imagine the alternative -- that California had simply continued borrowing money (and lying to the Federal government about how much it was borrowing) in order to pay its bills.  Eventually it would have gotten to the point where it couldn't borrow any more, which meant it couldn't pay back what it owed, and would have defaulted on its loans.

Of course, governments do that all the time, but then they "devalue" the currency, in effect saying that it's worth less, and therefore they don't have to pay as much back. California can't do that because it doesn't control the dollar, and the Federal Government wouldn't devalue the dollar just because of California, so what would eventually happen is the Federal Government would have to step in and pay off California's debt.

That's exactly the same situation the Eurozone finds itself in with Greece, except with two key differences:. 
1. Unlike the US -- where the Federal government has control and oversight of the 50 States -- the Euro is simply an agreement between member countries, with each country promising to behave responsibly.  Greece actually lied about its financial condition for many years prior to the crisis.
2. When California tried to control spending, people were unhappy.  When Greece tried to do the same, the people rioted!

The EU have already given Greece 220 billion euros (US $300 billion) and this week they rokered a deal to forgive Greece half of its debts, all in exchange for the promise that Greece would curb its spending...and the Greek prime minister thumbed his nose at it!  Today, three years after this all came to light, Greece is still running an annual deficit, borrowing more than it can possibly pay back.

But the bigger problem is that, as the chart shows, it is clearly not limited to Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain (the so-called "PIGS" countries). In terms of GDP, the UK is running an annual deficit equal to Greece, and worse than Spain!  Germany and France, who are having to bail out the other countries, are already running their own deficit.  (France is at 7%, and Germany at 3.3%)

And while the US has recovered somewhat from George W's final farewell -- taking the US from a balanced budget to a 10% annual deficit in just 8 short years (and implementing tax cuts at the same time!) -- it is not much better.

The only bright spot appears to be Estonia, which has achieved a balanced budget during the economic recession!  Why isn't anyone getting financial advice from them?