Postcodes

In the UK, postcodes were introduced in 1857, but not standardised until the 1970s. Each postcode has four parts: area, district, sector and unit. (For example, RG4 8BW.) 

Today there are 1.8 million postcodes and each postcode covers an average of 15 properties. However, a single large building can be split into multiple post codes, and some high-volume organisations are allocated their own postcode. 

In the US, zip codes (short for Zone Improvement Plan) were introduced in 1963, and zip+4 was introduced in 1983 (and still not used today). There are 41,682 active zip codes, although about a third of those are used for PO boxes, military or individual organisations. It's remarkable that the USA is 40 times bigger than the UK, but the UK has 60 times as many post codes!

Each zip code covers an average of 7800 people, but that varies dramatically with population density. (Texas and California have about the same number of zip codes, but California has 12 million more people.)

In New Zealand, postcodes were introduced in 2006. They are 4 digits, with 1,856 postcodes currently assigned. On average each postcode covers 2,500 people.

Fun fact: The New Zealand post recognises both English and Māori placenames, so the following are equivalent:

Māori Language Commission
PO Box 411
Wellington 6140

Te Taura Whiri i te Reo Māori
Pouaka Poutāpeta 411
Te Whanganui a Tara 6140

https://www.bph-postcodes.co.uk/guidetopc.cgi

https://www.zip-codes.com/m/zip-code-statistics.asp

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postcodes_in_New_Zealand

Kiwis need to realise 100 per cent pure is 100 per cent propaganda

I just read this great editorial and wanted to share it. It's no surprise that the New Zealand government wants to advertise its natural and cultural heritage as big draws for tourist dollars, but doesn't want to spend money protecting those very things. That's just human nature: eating your cake and having it too; the tragedy of the commons, etc. 

What is interesting is that grey area when the advertisement becomes propaganda. The government has done all the research, they know the sad state of New Zealand rivers thanks to contamination from cattle ranching. They know the sad shape of native birds because the "wild" ones still have to live in little, protected "predator-free" zones. (We live near one of the largest sanctuaries, and you can still hike around the perimeter in half a day.) They know the sad shape of the Maori communities, the amount of overseas land ownership, and a host of other factors that will have an execrable impact on the very things they are highlighting in these adverts. 

I guess the grey line comes down to the audience: If you're talking to people  overseas who want to see some of that magic but have no vested interest in preserving it, then it's just good tourism. If you're talking to locals who need to do something to preserve it, then convincing them otherwise is worse than propaganda. It's sealing their own doom. 

I hope you'll take the time to read the article, as it's applicable 100 per cent to the rest of the world. It also reminded me of another campaign, "Pure Michigan," which John Kerfoot brilliantly parodied.

P. S. It looks like "the man" finally got to John Kerfoot, as all but 3 of his videos have been made private with no explanation. Those 3 videos -- on road construction, Midwest winters and the Q-line -- are still hilarious, but nothing compared to his takedown of Mackinac Island or the Renaissance Festival. 

R. I. P. John

I mentioned that just after my trip to California last year, my long-time neighbour and friend, John Lynch, had passed away.* I didn't mention why he was so special to me.

[Uh, I just realised I never finished that post! It's been sitting in the draft folder for a year and a half! Well anyway, pretend I mentioned it and someday I'll straighten it out.]

I met John in 1996, two years after my father had passed away. He was in his mid-50s, about 30 years older than me, and while I never really thought of him as a father figure, he probably thought of me as a son. He never had kids of his own. 

I was looking at buying the house next door, and thought it a good idea to meet the neighbours first. I did not expect the neighbour to tell me that he built the house! He even took me on a tour of the house, told me why he had sold it, and told me stories about miserable the previous owners were. However, what I'll always remember from that first meeting was him folding his 6-foot frame through a 2-foot window -- he was always remarkably lithe and flexible. 

We got on like a house on fire, which is coincidentally what happened to his original house, and why he ended up building the new one. He'd just finished building a wooden bathtub (which was popular in the 70s) and his niece gave him a candle, so he decided to burn it in a little cage from the ceiling. It doesn't take a genius to figure out what happened next, but when he discovered his bathroom was on fire, rather than a try to put it out, he ran to the backyard to destroy his marijuana plants before the fire department arrived! Needless to say, he lost everything. (He also later learned the plants were all males, and useless for smoking.) 

When the new house was built, two things happened: he quit his job in mental health services and became a full-time builder, and one weekend he was not it of town he lent the the keys to a gay friend who threw a party on the back deck. The neighbours, who were deeply religious, were so appalled by what they saw that they put their house up for sale! John decided he wanted to determine who his neighbours were, so he bought their house and rented it out. 

A few years later, John's family moved to Oregon. Being Irish, family was everything to him so he sold his main house, left the little house rented, and moved to Oregon. However, he couldn't find enough work and eventually ran out of money. He moved back to LA, kicked out his renter, and lived in the tiny 1000-square foot house next to the beautiful 2600-square foot house he'd built.

17 years later, I arrived. We put in a new fence, two skylights, a hot tub, restored the back deck (although my wildest parties involved carving pumpkins) and a koi pond--indoors. It was a wild ride. 

The door was always open for John, and he was part of the furniture, as they say. He also helped me make a couple of pieces of furniture; although I was never particularly deft at woodworking, he showed me the basics and gave me the tools. The most important advice he gave to me was this: "Never put your fingers anyplace you wouldn't put your d---." 20 years later, every time I touch a power tool, I think about those sage words. 

In 1998, I wanted to go on a cruise around the Canary Islands to see the Leonid meteor shower, and I jokingly asked John if he wanted to go with us. When he said yes, my the-girlfriend and I exchanged glances of horror! We'd never travelled with someone else before, but we couldn't rescind an invitation, could we? In the end, he went with us and we had an amazing time. My girlfriend got seasick and would go to sleep straight after dinner, but John and I stayed up to the early hours listening to a fantastic jazz band. (I particularly remember him requesting "Little Brown Jug" and me asking for "Paper Moon" and on subsequent nights they would play those as soon as we arrived.)

There were many memorable events from that trip: One day we decided to hire a car but all they had were manual, which I never learned how to drive, so John took over. Towards the end of the evening he was getting nervous about getting back (the ship disembarked at sunset) but I wanted to see the black sand beaches. He was driving but I had the map, so we returned to the ship via a circuitous and completely unnecessary route, but I got to see the beach and he never knew any better. 

Five years later,  my ex-girlfriend and I were toying with the idea of restoring her grandparents' house and turning it into a bed and breakfast, and John gave me the second most-important advice: "Do it while you're young." He was referring to his failure in Oregon, of course, but I knew he was right; it was a risky venture and nobody knew if it would be successful, and if we waited for retirement we would be stuck. Fortunately some serendipitous events at work meant we could afford to start when I was 35.  Two years later, the place opened for business (and was wildly successful) but my girlfriend and I ended up splitting and I was left with nothing at all.

I moved back to LA, but sold the house and moved to downtown, which was an adventure in its own right. John's eyesight had deteriorated and he wasn't driving very much, so he didn't visit me and I only saw him about every other month. Around the same time, another set of neighbours that he was close to moved (ironically) to Oregan and he was left alone in Lomita. 

A year later, I got my UK visa and headed off on another adventure, not sure where that would end. John was not "technologically sophisticated" -- he didn't have a computer or even a cell phone -- and I was terrible about keeping in touch, but I'd see him every time I visited LA. Unfortunately as his eyesight deteriorated, so did the rest of him. He no longer had his zeal for life, and once he officially retired it was only a matter of time. 

He actually lasted longer than I thought he might, no doubt buoyed by the stream of rescue dogs he always had. But I knew from friends that he wasn't taking care of himself, wasn't engaged with anything, and of course that's the real killer. 

When he died he was 78 or so -- still 30 years older than me -- and I still think of him often and fondly. My stepson and I are currently constructing a hut in the yard, and although I'd be ashamed to show it to John (there isn't a square angle on it!) I still know that without John I wouldn't have even attempted it. And my stepson is having a blast playing with power tools. Pretty soon I'll have to share with him John's greatest advice.

(As my girlfriend had to point out, that old man is me.)

A mystery wrapped in a nightmare

A week ago, we drove to Auckland to visit the kids at camp. Along the way we took the "Forgotten World" highway and stopped at the Waitomo caves, which were both spectacular. I've been in New Zealand over three years now and have explored so little of its natural beauty, it's a real shame.

On Friday I developed a small headache; I took some paracetamol but it didn't help. On Saturday it got a bit worse, and I was quite grumpy all day, but on Sunday - when we were visiting the kids - it became a debilitating, stabbing headache that made me grimace in pain every few seconds. 

After we left the kids, we went to the Auckland A&E, but the triage nurse there suggested we go around the corner to the "Urgent Care Service" as we would be seen a little quicker. In retrospect, this might have been a mistake, as the urgent care did not have the specialists or support to figure out the problem. However, I don't think this was the case; I'll explain why later. 

The GP checked my neural signs to make sure it wasn't an issue with my head and did some basic checks on my eye, but couldn't find any cause. She suggested I take codeine and see a specialist eye clinic in the morning. I'd never taken codeine and was worried about the side effects so I declined. I very much regretted this later, as the headache just kept getting worse. 

We found a motel and stayed the night, but I don't think I got much sleep. At 8am we were at the eye clinic, but the only thing they could find was viral conjunctivitis ('pink-eye') and although they said that clearly had nothing to do with the headache, they gave me codeine and told me to follow up in a week. This time I took the codeine, and while it didn't do much for my headache, it at least allowed me to sleep a little while my girlfriend drove ten hours straight from Auckland to Wellington. In retrospect, they should have referred me to the hospital, not given me a bullshit diagnosis that they knew did not explain the main symptoms, but again I don't think it would have made any difference and I was happier to be close to home. 

I spent the next 24 hours in bed, taking codeine and trying to sleep, but it wasn't getting any better so Monday night we went to Wellington A&E. They, too, were at a loss but they kept me overnight and started me on morphine, so the pain was much less but I was so nauseous I wasn't sure which was worse. On Tuesday they gave me another full eye test and a CT scan, and Wednesday they gave me an MRI. Neither revealed anything. 

However, on Wednesday I started developing a patch on my forehead with distinct lines on it, and by Thursday it was clear what was causing the problem: Shingles. This had been considered but rejected earlier for two good reasons:

1. Shingles normally occur in older people whose immune system is compromised. However, I've been on immunosuppressants for my eczema since March, so in reality I'd "pre-compromised" myself. 
2. The optic nerve encompasses more than just sight; it controls the area around the eye, the ear, the forehead and part of the nose.  When shingles are in the optic nerve, it usually compromises vision in that eye. Mine had been fine.

So that's why I don't think anyone would have made the diagnosis until the blisters developed on Thursday. With the mystery solved, they sent me home with a goody bag of anti-virals, morphine, anti-nausea drugs, and gabapentin, which focuses on nerve pain. So while I'll still be sick as a dog for the next week or so - with complete bedrest - I should make a full recovery. 

And hopefully we can get back to see the Rotarua hot springs soon!

P.S. In Judaism, there is a prayer for the first time something happens (or the first time it happens in a season).  It's called the "shehecheyanu" and basically translates to: "Blessed are You, Lord our God, King of the Universe, who has granted us life, sustained us and enabled us to reach this occasion."

I had a number of "shehecheyanu" moments, such as staying overnight in a hospital (as a patient), getting a line put in my arm (and later another in the opposite arm), getting a CT scan, getting an MRI, not eating for 5 days, not going to the bathroom for 6 days, not drinking tea for a week!!  I can't say they were all enjoyable, but it's remarkable that I got to this age without having any of those experiences before.

P.P.S. This whole week cost $99, and that was for the motel in Auckland.  Even the prescriptions were free. Thank goodness for socialised medicine!

Permanent Resident

When I got my New Zealand "resident" visa last year, I was bemused to find it meant I could live and work in New Zealand for the rest of my life, I just couldn't leave and come back. Seriously, once it expired (after one year), if I left New Zealand they wouldn't let me return.  In most countries, Immigration gets upset if you *stay* in the country; New Zealand gets upset if you leave! 

Since I would like to visit other countries, I applied for a "permanent resident" visa as soon as I was eligible, which I just received.  In addition to permission to return, it also allows me to vote and apply for public benefits and basically give me all the rights of a natural-born citizen.  In fact, there's absolutely no benefit for applying for New Zealand citizenship unless you're planning to move to Australia.

Since 1973, Australia and New Zealand have had a reciprocal agreement recognising each other's citizens.  If I decided to emigrate to Australia on my US or UK passports, I would have to apply for a temporary work permit and basically start from scratch.  If I had an NZ passport, however, I could just fly over and start work tomorrow.  (I wouldn't be able to vote or be eligible for public benefits in Australia.)

Since the reciprocal arrangement was implemented, many more people have emigrated from New Zealand to Australia, because the standard of living was generally higher.  However, in the past few years, as Australian mining has declined, many kiwis have been moving back to New Zealand.  This has resulted in a very heated property market.  Here is a chart from realtors Barfoot and Thomson, of median house prices and median rental value (per week) in Auckland between 1996 and 2015::

Since then, the median house price has gone over the $900,000 mark and the average property value over $1,000,000.  Auckland has been hit the worst but Wellington has not escaped.

When we moved from Kapiti to Wellington in 2015, we decided to rent for a year so we could get to know the area.  At the time, the average house price was $401,000; as of October it was $528,200.  That's a 31% jump in less than three years!

The new Labour government has implemented several measures to try and reduce house prices, including limiting migration, limiting investment by overseas buyers, and requiring more capital from speculators.  They are also looking at implementing measures to improve rental properties, such as requiring insulation and implementing a "warrant of fitness" checklist, which will reduce the demand for investment properties.

These efforts may, in time, result in lower house prices; however, by restricting the number of rental properties, they are having an immediate effect on rental prices! Today there was a news article that the number of available rentals in Wellington was down 71% from last year!  The law of supply and demand indicates that rental prices are going to soar.

Our lease is up in April, which is good for us because the vast majority of houses are rented in January and February, as people move before school starts; during the rest of the year the market is very quiet.  If our lease was up during that period, there would be very strong demand and the landlord would be tempted to significantly increase the rent.  I'm hoping in April he won't see that demand and will leave it alone.  In 2019, we'll have one child either in Israel or at University, and maybe by that time the property market will have cooled down a bit and we can look at downsizing into a 3-bedroom house.

Now, are you impressed how I went from "permanent resident" to "permanent residency"?

Recognition

One of these maps shows countries that recognise Palestine as a State. The other shows countries that recognise Israel as a state. Interesting, no?

Source: Wikipedia

MMP

Most democracies use a "first past the post" system -- that is, each constituency votes for their preferred candidate, and the one who gets the most votes represents that area. The party that gets the most representatives then is the "ruling" party. That seems quite reasonable; however, that "winner take all" approach means the elected representatives don't necessarily reflect the electorate.

In America, this is most clearly seen in the electoral college, but it can also be seen in Congressional races. For example, in the last US election, 45.2 million Americans voted for a Democratic senator while only 39.3 million Americans voted for a Republican senator, yet Republicans kept control of the Senate by focusing on where the votes were cast. Because each state gets two senators regardless of population, votes in small states are "worth" more than large states. Similarly, in "swing states" (where the election is close), votes are worth more than "safe states" because winning by one vote is the same as winning by a million votes. According to wallethub, a vote in New Hampshire is "worth" 84 times more than a vote in New York!

Of course, this isn't a recent phenomenon, and isn't limited to the US: In the last UK elections, Labour received 42.2% of the popular vote while the Conservates received 42.1%. However, Conservatives captured 318 seats (48.9%) while Labour only captured 262 (40.3%).

In 2011, the UK held a referendum to change the "first past the post" vote with what they called "alternative vote." It suffered a resounding defeat, although I believe it was because the Conservatives--who benefited most from the current system--ran a successful campaign of fear and doubt. Under "first past the post" a vote for a third party is effectively wasted because that candidate has no chance of winning. Alternative Vote would have allowed voters to cast multiple votes, specifying the order of preference, so voters could vote for a third party candidate followed by a major candidate, knowing their vote would count either way.

In the 1980s, New Zealand was suffering a similar situation but took a different approach. The first-past-the-post system had encouraged a two-horse race between National and Labour, and third parties were completely sidelined. In 1978, Social Credit won 16% of the vote but only one percent of the seats. In 1981 they won 21% of the vote but only 2% of the seats. At the same time, Labour received more votes than National, but National won more seats. When Labour won in 1984, the set up a Royal Commission to review the situation. The Royal Commission recommended an alternative that had been forced on Germany after World War 2.

In March 1933, the Nazi party won the German Federal election with 44 percent of the popular vote. This was enough to seize control, install its leader as a dictator and dissolve the Reichstag. All other parties were then banned. At the end of World War II, the Allies wanted to resume democracy but prevent one party from seizing control again.  They came up with a "party list" system to ensure proportional representation system, which worked like this: Each voter got to vote for a candidate and a party. They did not have to be the same. The candidate still won using the first-past-the-post system, but the party vote was then used to allocate additional seats to ensure the electorate reflected the national vote.

Using the US senate race as an example, imagine if voters from each state voted for one candidate and one party. 50 Senators would be chosen by direct ballot, but the other 50 would be allocated to based on the party vote.  If the Democrats received 53% of the votes but only 48% of the seats (as they did in the last election), they would be allocated 29 additional seats; whereas if the Republicans only received 46% of the votes but won 52% of the seats, they would be allocated 21 seats.  Thus, the Senate would have 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans to match the proportion of the party vote.

The idea in Germany was that by preventing one single party from dominating politics, they would be forced to form coalitions and work through compromise.  In the US 2016 election, third parties won nearly 5% of the vote; if that had been reflected in the results, neither the Democrats nor Republicans would have won an outright majority and would have had to form a coalition with one of the smaller parties.

In 1993, New Zealand formally adopted the system, calling is "Mixed Member Proportional" (or MMP) for reasons I do not understand.  There are 121 seats in Parliament; 71 are elected directly in regional elections and 49 are allocated from the party vote.  In the 2014 election, National and Labour still claimed the lion share (76% of the seats between them) but five other parties were represented, and National had to form a coalition with New Zealand First.

I mention all of this as a prelude to the 2017 election, being held in two weeks, which has been an absolute roller-coaster ride.  Unfortunately only permanent residents can vote, and I won't be eligible until December.  (I also want to talk about the saga of Kim Dotcom, an Internet millionaire who bought his way into New Zealand citizenship in 2009 and has been fighting US extradition on money laundering and racketeering charges since 2012, but in the meantime has bankrolled a new political party, called the Internet Party.)

One year later

OK, technically it's 11 months since my "Along came a spider" post, but well past time for an update.  The tumor turned out to be much larger than expected (10mm instead of 3-5mm) and it was found in the "sentinel node" (the lymph node closest to the tumour).  However, so little was found in the lymph node that they chose to treat her as if it hadn't been there.

She developed several infections after the surgery.  Unfortunately, because there were no external symptoms the surgeon dismissed her concerns, and only took it seriously when the infection got so bad her surgical scar burst open!  (Yeah, it was pretty disgusting.) We spent quite a few nights at the ER/A&E/ED (or whatever you call it).  Fortunately, we have friends who are ER doctors at Wellington hospital, so we were always well looked after.

The infections delayed the radiation treatment until January, because they needed the tissue to be stable.  By then, my partner had already resumed work, and every day after work she'd drive to the hospital for a five-minute dose of radiation, then drive home and immediately fall asleep.  She had almost no energy but after a month they pronounced her "clear" with a 1-2% chance of recurrence in the next ten years.

I said, "No more medical dramas" but of course she didn't listen to me (or perhaps did it to spite me).  I mentioned they accidentally found the tumour when they did a CT scan because she'd been having abdominal pains.  Those pains seemed to go away while she was dealing with the cancer, but came back with a vengeance in March.  She had several attacks where she was simply doubled-over in pain, unable to move.  Over the next two months we had several more visits to the GP and the hospital, and the consensus pointed to gallstones but she did not have the classic symptoms (such as pain after eating a fatty meal).  During one attack, they wanted to do an MRI to try and catch the gallstone in action, but it took the MRI team three days to fit her in, and by then the attack had stopped and -- not surprisingly -- they didn't find anything.  (An ultrasound had confirmed she had gallstones, but I later learned that most women over forty have gallstones; only a small percentage of them ever develop problems.)

By then we'd decided there really wasn't a down-side to removing her gallbladder--the surgery was routine, and the gallbladder is really a vestigial organ--so we might as well try it and see if it worked.  I know that sounds a bit callous, but she was in a lot of pain and nobody had a plan B.  For the second time in four months, we called her private health insurance company and they were just as amazing as last time: She was scheduled for surgery in less than four weeks, at the end of July.  Had she stayed in the public system, it could have taken a year or more.

It was an overnight procedure, and my partner was very leary of the general anaesthetic.  She is a real lightweight when it comes to drugs, and after the cancer op it took her almost 24 hours to recover.  The anesthetist was a sweetheart and he said he'd put her on the lightest medication possible, and she was alert an hour after the op.  She had no complications apart from a nagging pain in her ribs, which might have been a lingering issue from the radiation.

(She did have one bout of pain; her GP thought it was an internal bleed, and the surgeon thought it might be a small hernia.  Either way, they thought it would pass on its own and it did after about a week.)

So she is back to work (again) and slowly rebuilding her muscles after a year of medical traumas. (I called it, "Our year of living medically.")  She is walking home from work and swimming and looking great, although she still gets tired quite easily.  We have family visiting soon so she is taking five weeks off work to spend time with them; it will be interesting to see if the tiredness still plays a factor.

I'll end this with a photo of my partner, circa 1974. :-)

Falling off a cliff

Looks like the USD and GBP are headed for parity!  Two years ago, 1 pound would have gotten you $1.60.  Today it gets you just $1.24.  Since June it's lost 17% of it's value!  I haven't seen a slide like that since 9/11.

But if you think that's bad, compare the New Zealand dollar against the pound.  A year ago 1 pound would have gotten you $2.30, today it gets you $1.74, 25% less!

If I were earning NZ dollars, this would be an excellent time to visit Britain. :-)  Unfortunately I'm earning US dollars and the US dollar has been quite soft lately, no doubt helped by the ridiculous presidential election.  Since the beginning of the year, 1 US dollar has gone from 1.56 NZ dollars to 1.33 NZ dollars, a 15% drop.  That means I'm effectively earning 15% less than I was in February!  That totally sucks.

That said, there was an article two days ago that the kiwi (as it's affectionally known) had fallen to a 7-week low because...the global price of milk had dropped.  If "what's good for the country is good for General Motors" is true in the US, then in New Zealand what's good for the country is good for cows.

 

Eurovision revisited

I've long poked fun at Eurovision (which is something of an institutional pastime, I think) but nothing really sums it up better than the UK entry for 1974, by an Australian singer who didn't even like the song she was singing.  (It was chosen by public ballot, a formula which continues to be disastrous for Britain.)  What's remarkable is that this came fourth that year!  (Abba's "Waterloo" won.)

https://youtu.be/7CSmksNRQ9w

Olivia Newton-John, Long Live Love